The paradox in manpower projections is that while the techniques are easy and simple, applying them successfully is enormously complex and difficult. Manpower projections a e not an academic exercise or an end unto themselves. Their value lies in extending the rangeof other phases of manpower planning and, indeed of planning for other company functions.

Forecasts of manpower supplies and demands are of two types, estimates and projections. Estimates are educated guesses based on experience while projections are mathematical extensions of data on manpower into the future. Most forecasts involve both projections and estimates.

Forecasting Techniques

We shall now attempt to look at the aspect of.forecasting future requirements. This can be done through various techniques.

The process of estimating manpower demand consists of four steps:

an approach

a basic factor

a method

a technique

Approach

There are eight possible approaches:

1) Subjective 2) Objective

3) Global 4) Component

5) Techno-economic 6) Non-economic

7) Deterministic 8) Probabilistic

The order in which they are mentioned suggests the formation of four groups, each of which comprises two mutually exclusive approaches e.g. (i) Subective or Objective, (ii) Global or Component etc.

The groups, between themselves, are not quite mutually exclusive. A subjective approach to manpower demand estimation uses intuition, impression or judgement. Opposed to this, the objective approach tries to justify the estimate of demand on the basis of certain factors or logical explanations.

A global approach would try to estimate manpower demand as an overall figure, directly for the entire problem under consideration, whereas a cwponent approach would first estimate the demand for segments of the problem and then aggregate it.

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